Excluded generations in non-inclusive nations : the demographic roots of political unrest in the Arab world

Abstract

This chapter offers an interpretation of the political link in Arab societies through the lens of demography. The first section shows how young generations today do not resemble those of earlier times. Rising education has raised expectations, and the reduction of fertility and postponement of family building have provided young adults with unprecedented individual freedom of movement. If expectations are not met by opportunities and young people have a feeling of exclusion, freedom of movement becomes a driver of emigration and rebellion. The second part focuses on specific patterns of reproduction among Arab populations and the obstacles they put to building inclusive nations. On one side, the uniquely high prevalence of kinship endogamy means that marriage does not help unrelated population groups to integrate so that blood bonds remain stronger than national bonds. On the other side, while the circulation of people is the most significant form of exchange between Arab countries, nationality laws based on exclusive jus sanguinis do not provide newcomers with pathways to full membership; and therefore, non-citizens have emerged as a category in Arab countries. Excluded generations in non-inclusive nations set the stage for prolonged political crises.