International business cycles and the ERM : is there a European business cycle?

Abstract

Successful fixed exchange rate regimes impose policy disciplines that are likely to lead to conformity in the business cycles of the participating countries. This conjecture is borne out in the present paper by the evidence that the business cycle affiliation of ERM member countries has shifted from the United States to Germany since the formation of the ERM. This effect is bolstered by growing links in trade and finance between the European countries. The United Kingdom is conspicuous among these in that its business cycle affiliation did not change in the period of study.