Illicit trade and infectious diseases

Abstract

Can international trade enable transmission of infectious diseases? We consider illicit trade in live animals as a potential vector for spreading infectious animal diseases. We proxy illicit trade in live animals through asymmetry in mirror trade statistics, which has been used in the trade literature to uncover evidence on smuggling across items like antiques, cultural property, or natural resources. We collect a comprehensive dataset that covers about 130 countries and the six live animal categories in the Harmonized System (HS) over a sixteen-year period, to study the link between discrepancies in mirror trade statistics and infectious animal diseases. Our results imply that a 1% increase in illicit trade in an HS4 live animal category is associated with a 0.3% to 0.4% rise in infections. We explore the mechanisms and find that mis-classifying or under-pricing an imported species are the channels through which illicit trade impacts animal health. We also find evidence that illicit trade in live animals is associated with infections in humans. Overall, our results suggest that illicit trade in live animals is an important source of spreading infectious diseases.