The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs : a new measure and decomposition
Economics letters, 2021, OnlineFirst
CROSSLEY, Thomas F., GONG, Yifan, STINEBRICKNER, Ralph, STINEBRICKNER, Todd, The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs : a new measure and decomposition, Economics letters, 2021, OnlineFirst - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/73092
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational expectations, subjective uncertainty, and aggregate shocks.
Available online 20 November 2021
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/73092
Full-text via DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110160