The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs : a new measure and decomposition

dc.contributor.author	CROSSLEY, Thomas F.
dc.contributor.author	GONG, Yifan
dc.contributor.author	STINEBRICKNER, Ralph
dc.contributor.author	STINEBRICKNER, Todd
dc.date.accessioned	2021-11-24T09:00:12Z
dc.date.available	2021-11-24T09:00:12Z
dc.date.issued	2022
dc.identifier.citation	Economics letters, 2022, Vol. 210, Art. 110160, OnlineOnly	en
dc.identifier.issn	0165-1765
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/1814/73092
dc.description	Available online 20 November 2021	en
dc.description.abstract	We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational expectations, subjective uncertainty, and aggregate shocks.	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf
dc.language.iso	en	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en
dc.relation.ispartof	Economics letters	en
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess	en
dc.title	The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs : a new measure and decomposition	en
dc.type	Article	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110160
dc.identifier.volume	210
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