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dc.contributor.authorCROSSLEY, Thomas F.
dc.contributor.authorGONG, Yifan
dc.contributor.authorSTINEBRICKNER, Todd
dc.contributor.authorSTINEBRICKNER, Ralph
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-25T14:48:57Z
dc.date.available2021-11-25T14:48:57Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/73122
dc.descriptionPublished online: 19 January, 2021en
dc.description.abstractUnique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both the college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic expectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNational Beureau of Economic Researchen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNBER Working Paperen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2021/28353en
dc.relation.urihttps://www.nber.org/papers/w28353en
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen
dc.titleExamining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods : new distributional tests of rational expectationsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
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