The road to Galwan Valley : an alternative view of India’s relations with China and the US since 2005

Abstract

This article analyses the reasons for the dramatic worsening of India-China relations which became apparent in the 2020 border crisis, particularly during the confrontation which took place in the Galwan Valley. The analysis focusses on the historical evolution of India-China bilateral relations since the beginning of this century. It has two main themes: (a) the unsolved border dispute between the two countries; and (b) the role played in India-China relations by India’s increasing strategic and military closeness with the US. The basic thesis of the article is that in 2005 the US consciously upgraded its connection with India to bring it in the arc of containment it was building around its Asian adversaries, including China. New Delhi’s new closeness with the US – a closeness which had a visible military dimension – could not but worry Beijing and cause a worsening of the India-China relationship. Up to the end of 2013, however, by implementing a complex set of policies, India’s policymakers kept this worsening under control, reducing it to a bare minimum. Things changed dramatically in 2014, when Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, abandoned India’s previous prudent approach to China, choosing to confront it and force it to accept India as an equal power. This brought about a downturn in relations between the two countries which, in spite of some countertendencies, eventually resulted in the 2020 border crisis.