Will the Ukraine crisis weaken Europe’s climate and energy policy?

Abstract

The Ukraine crisis has made Europe’s energy dependence painfully clear - exactly as major policy decisions are being negotiated on climate and energy. The EU already adopted ambitious goals of climate neutrality by 2050, and a 55% reduction of emissions by 2030. The session will consider the perspective for these policies in the short and medium term. In the coming weeks and months, the outlook is grim. Gas is critical for both residential heating and significant industries such as chemicals and fertilizer. As populations are hit by dramatic increases of energy bills and rising food prices, indigenous energy resources may become attractive, not least coal, and this may halt the decade long decline in Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. In the longer term, we are likely to see greater diversification in energy use and further improvements in energy efficiency and investments in renewable energy. However, these efforts also require a lot of new raw materials, and as these are scarcely available in Europe, a geopolitical approach to its trade policy may be required. Equally, a speedy scaling up of new technologies will be key while new infrastructure investments will be needed to facilitate these developments.