The South Caucasus in an ‘Interregnum’? : the shifting power dynamics in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Abstract

Russia’s war in Ukraine bears significant implications for the South Caucasus – a region that is strategically important for both Russia and the EU and that is particularly vulnerable to geopolitical turmoil. While it is early to assess how the outcome of the ongoing war will influence the security context in the South Caucasus, the recent developments in the region suggest that significant change is underway. The previous order seems to be challenged, but the shape of the next one still looks uncertain. Against the background of Russia’s fading influence, the EU should take the lead in addressing the threats and challenges faced by the three states in the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia – and to assert itself as a political and security actor there. Deeper engagement by the EU would strengthen the resilience of the countries in the region and help preserve peace and stability. The EU’s approach to the region will be a significant test of the proclaimed awakening of ‘geopolitical Europe’.