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dc.contributor.authorSCHULTE-CLOOS, Julia
dc.contributor.authorDRAŽANOVÁ, Lenka
dc.description.abstractSocial identity theory suggests that an external threat, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, can increase identification with a group and foster a shared sense of identity. While initial research has shown that the shock of Russian aggression positively affects support for the European Union (EU) among European citizens on average, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how variation in threat perceptions relates to identity-based support for the EU. Using survey data from 16 countries collected just five weeks after the invasion, we show an increase in identity-related EU support among those most concerned about the Russian threat. By applying machine learning techniques and a causal forest algorithm, we further reveal the heterogeneity of this relationship. Individuals with an exclusive national identity, who otherwise express little sense of pride in belonging to the EU, register a much larger increase in European identification in response to the Russian threat. Notably, this effect is particularly pronounced among respondents from Central and Eastern Europe. By highlighting that even individuals with an exclusive national identity can be swayed to feel attached to the EU in times of crisis, our study contributes to understanding the complex nature of identity-based support for the EU.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 885026).en
dc.publisherEuropean University Instituteen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Paperen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesThe European Governance and Politics Programmeen
dc.subjectEuropean identificationen
dc.subjectExclusive national identityen
dc.subjectPublic support for the EUen
dc.subjectRussian invasion of Ukraine in 2022en
dc.subjectThreat perceptionsen
dc.titleShared identity in crisis : a comparative study of support for the EU in the face of the Russian threaten
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.rights.licenseAttribution 4.0 International*

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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International