Method to the madness : assessing the future of EU enlargement

Abstract

The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has reinvigorated the enlargement impetus of the European Union (EU) and raised the recognition that the current status quo is unsustainable. Several proposals have been circulated to resolve the short-comings of the current binary “in-out” methodology. This research aims to provide insight on the effectiveness of the reform proposals in addressing the challenges of the current regime. It identifies two categories of proposals: a horizontal approach with a staged accession model and a vertical approach with a sectoral accession model. Relying on the External Incentives Model (EIM), the analysis finds that while a vertical approach may be more effective in reviving credibility on the short term, the horizontal model is more credible in striking a sustainable balance between delivery of benefits upon compliance with conditionality, and accounting for backsliding and ‘absorption capacity’ concerns of member states.