France, Japan and a greater Aukus

Abstract

France was understandably disappointed by Aukus. Japan had also entered a 2016 bid for the construction of 12 conventional submarines, which the French won, only to be rejected in September 2021. However, France and Japan drew different conclusions when Aukus was announced. This brief argues that the direction the Japanese government has taken is more likely to carry weight vis-à-vis China. In a world where security is increasingly built in concentric circles, France is likely to become peripheral in the Indo-Pacific. This brief is based on fieldwork conducted in July and August 2023 as a University of Tokyo RCAST (ROLES) Visiting Senior Research Fellow.