Broken promises diplomacy : the Russia-Ukraine war and the end of enlargement as we know it

Abstract

Among its many other tragic effects, the Russia-Ukraine war has complicated life for the countries of the Western Balkans. The European Union’s reaction to the war included the revival of a rhetoric supportive of enlargement to the Western Balkans, in addition to financial aid to weather the energy crisis. The European Council has even granted candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina, which opens possibilities for that country to receive additional support. But the EU stopped short of filling that conversation with political or technical content that takes into account the years of “broken promises diplomacy” that led to the loss of credibility in the enlargement process. Instead of reconsidering what enlargement means in this context, both the EU and the countries of the Western Balkans ended up reengaging in the same kind of slow-burning formal accession negotiations they conducted in the past, expecting a different result. This absence of adaptability is likely to cause more damage than good to a region that is already struggling to fight off anti-European and anti-democratic forces from inside and out.