A supranational solidaristic space? : comparative appraisal of determinants of individual support for European solidarity in the COVID-19 era

Abstract

COVID-19 created profound shockwaves across the Union, pushing supranational crisis policymaking to the forefront of European politics and fostering an unprecedented expansion in fiscal solidarity with which to support the economic recovery ahead. This development lends pertinence to a contemporary reappraisal of the main determinants underlying individual support for European solidarity and its implications to the consolidation of a political basis for a supranational solidaristic space. Using an original large-N survey dataset and employing a fixed-effects linear regression analysis, this paper empirically reviews ideal-type theoretical predictions for individual support for European solidarity by conducting a comparative assessment of their correlates' explanatory power in the new pandemic context. First, I contend individuals reason in supranational terms as key political attitudes driving individual support for cross-border solidarity are informed directly at the supranational level, consubstantiating the claim that European redistribution operates as a distinct legitimate space for solidarity in its own right. Second, I argue that utilitarian motivations linked to expectations of material amelioration are better predictors of support for solidarity than cultural explanations emphasising national identity or attitudes towards immigration. Third, I suggest that preferences concerning European solidarity are better captured by political divides over economic redistribution rather than over cultural concerns, but only among more cosmopolitan-oriented individuals. In any event, cultural factors are still relevant predictors of support for solidarity, particularly among nationalists. The final section interprets these findings by discussing how the correspondence between public expectations and institutional supply of supranational redistributive instruments to respond to the pandemic may contribute to strenghten political support for European solidarity and the EU polity itself.