Perceptions and misperceptions of EU conditionality in the Western Balkans : a case of a 'capability-expectations gap'?

Abstract

Over three decades have passed since the Western Balkan states disembarked from the socialist route, yet they still seem off-track on the European one. At the same time, this European route is becoming increasingly tangled and uncertain. The goal of this chapter is to examine why this has been the case, and to what extent have the perceptions and misperceptions of the European Union (EU) and its conditionality mechanism led to a flawed understanding of the EU’s role in the region and EU integration as a process. The chapter revisits Christopher Hill’s “capability-expectation gap” used to study EU’s foreign policy and applies it to the accession of the Western Balkan states. It reframes the “capability” aspect to enclose the EU’s interests and strategies in EU accession of the region. In so doing, it accounts for the challenges that the EU is facing in presenting (a) a credible enlargement agenda, given the internal tensions after Brexit; and (b) itself as a credible “democratizing” factor, in view of the rise of illiberal politics across the member states. The chapter then examines the “expectations” of the EU among the stakeholders in the Western Balkans. It addresses to what extent the normative expectations of what the EU “should do” in the region have caused a flawed perception of EU’s conditionality, which in turn allowed a greater margin for domestic elites to reinforce their grip on the weak and captured Western Balkan states.