Shelter from the storm? : a quantitative analysis of the effect of humanitarian aid on the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence

Abstract

Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) is no longer understood as simply a by-product of war, yet the role of humanitarian aid within conflict zones and its potential to exacerbate such violence remains understudied. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating humanitarian aid’s impact on CRSV prevalence. It theorizes that humanitarian aid increases CRSV through several pathways: intensifying armed group competition, incentivizing civilian punishment/control, and injecting resources into conflict zones, ultimately prolonging conflicts. Utilizing Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) and Financial Tracking Service (FTS) data, this hypothesis is empirically tested through logistic regression analysis, showing moderate but robust support for the hypothesis, indicating that higher levels of humanitarian aid are associated with a small increase in the likelihood of CRSV. These findings underscore the importance of integrating CRSV into policy frameworks and further investigating humanitarian aid’s effects, particularly on women and girls, who bear the brunt of CRSV.