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Three essays on Russian political migration following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine
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Florence : European University Institute, 2024
EUI; SPS; PhD Thesis
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SERGEEVA, Ivetta, Three essays on Russian political migration following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Florence : European University Institute, 2024, EUI, SPS, PhD Thesis - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/77307
Abstract
Up to one million Russians emigrated during 2022-2023 after the invasion of Ukraine, driven by dissent, fear of repression, or economic crisis. This exodus is considered the biggest brain drain from Russia since Soviet Union’s collapse, and already in 2022 had consequences on economies and policies of hosting societies. This dissertation explores the dynamics of Russian migration following the Ukraine invasion, through three interconnected studies leveraging unique survey data from over 10,000 migrants across 100 countries, collected between March 2022 and April 2024. The research integrates insights from authoritarianism studies, political psychology, and migration studies, alongside advanced survey methodologies. The first paper, co-authored with Emil Kamalov, develops a model describing interactions between autocrats, exile organizations, and migrants. Findings from conjoint experiments suggest that, despite potential risks from autocratic crackdowns, criminalized exile organizations attract migrant support mainly through perceived effectiveness and authenticity. However, cooperation declines when donations are traceable or when organizational transparency is lacking. The second study examines the impact of nationality-based discrimination on migrants’ integration decisions. Utilizing panel data and qualitative analysis, it confirms that discrimination signals non-acceptance by host communities, thereby discouraging integration. The response to discrimination varies: some migrants withdraw or relocate, while others reduce assimilation efforts, especially when residing in what they consider temporary host countries. In the third paper, Kamalov and I revisit cumulative migration theories to understand how diaspora networks influence migration during crises. The study investigates which migrants are prioritized for assistance by their communities, applying the deservingness framework. Results indicate that political opposition and persecuted individuals, including ethnic minorities impacted by the war, are prioritized for support, highlighting a solidarity-driven selection process that transcends coethnic biases.
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Defence date: 01 October 2024
Examining Board: Prof. Miriam Golden (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Elias Dinas (European University Institute); Prof. Grigore Pop-Eleches (Princeton University); Prof. Timothy Frye (Columbia University)
Examining Board: Prof. Miriam Golden (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Elias Dinas (European University Institute); Prof. Grigore Pop-Eleches (Princeton University); Prof. Timothy Frye (Columbia University)