Unite, defend, grow : memos to the European Union leadership 2024-2029

Abstract

Every five years – after the European elections but before a new European Commission takes office – we take stock of the state of affairs of policies related to EU economic prosperity, reflect on the main challenges facing the EU and make recommendations on how the new EU leadership should address them. Except for the two opening memos – one to the Presidents of the European Commission, European Council and European Parliament, the other to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Commission Vice President – the memos are addressed to incoming commissioners responsible for specific policy areas. As Commission portfolios relevant to economic prosperity have grown in scope, so have our memos. This edition covers 18 individual policy areas in addition to the two flagship memos, up from 11 in 2009 and 2014, and 14 in 2019. By coincidence, each election to the European Parliament in the last 15 years – and hence each edition of our memos – was roughly aligned with a turning point in the EU economy. The 2009 memos were written after the global financial crisis had hit Europe with full force, but before the onset of the euro debt crisis (a risk that we clearly flagged). In 2014, the crisis had been overcome, but unemployment remained high, banking systems weak and Economic and Monetary Union governance reforms were a work in progress. Five years later, the EU had succeeded in significantly reducing unemployment and lowering the risk of renewed financial instability. But the challenge of invigorating medium-term growth remained and the EU was confronted with new challenges: mounting geopolitical tensions, the need to accelerate the green transition and the social consequence of digital transformation. Accordingly, our 2019 memos implored EU policymakers to be ‘braver, greener, fairer’.