Global risks to the EU

Abstract

The first pan-European survey of expert perceptions on conflict-related threats to EU interests. The 'Global Risks to the EU' research project delivers evidence-based insights from the first continent-wide assessment of global risk perceptions among European experts. Launched in 2025, the study asks experts on European politics to evaluate thirty predefined risks impacting EU coherence, unity, security, and prosperity. These risks were ranked based on their likelihood and potential impact on EU interests within the following year. This initiative is designed to provide strategic foresight for shaping European foreign policy, collect data on foreign policy alignment within the EU, and permit comparisons between foreign policy priorities in the US and the EU. Organised by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), the survey was developed in collaboration with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS). The survey is coordinated with the Preventive Priorities Study at the US-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).