dc.contributor.author | BARTHA, Eszter | |
dc.contributor.author | WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ, Joanna | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2008-07-14T16:57:08Z | |
dc.date.available | 2008-07-14T16:57:08Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1830-7728 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1814/9012 | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper investigates opinion contagion in collective behaviour, using an extension of
Granovetter’s (1978) and Krassa’s (1988) threshold models. The theoretical background
is the spiral of silence concept developed by Noelle-Neumann (1974), arguing that
people only assert their opinions if they perceive a minimal support from a relevant
proportion of others. We apply the model to explain the wrong electoral forecasts of the
Polish parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. It is shown that the minority
opinions were more widely-held than was declared in opinion polls as a consequence of
different distributions of the threshold values of opinion assertion. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | en | en |
dc.publisher | European University Institute | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | EUI MWP | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 2008/26 | en |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.subject | Spiral of silence | en |
dc.subject | threshold model | en |
dc.subject | electoral forecasts | en |
dc.subject | opinion assertion | en |
dc.title | Why do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviour | en |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.neeo.contributor | BARTHA|Eszter|aut| | |
dc.neeo.contributor | WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ|Joanna|aut| | |
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