Japan 2022 : Putin and Abe shocks thwart Kishida’s enjoyment of three golden years despite major defence overhaul

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the assassination of record-setting former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō impacted heavily on Japan’s domestic politics and international relations. Diplomatically, Tokyo forcefully aligned with its Western partners against Russia’s aggression while making progress in enhancing awareness that the European and Indo-Pacific strategic theatres are politically intertwined. In addition to doubling down on its alignment with the more combative approach to China of the United States, Japan continued to diversify its bilateral and mini-lateral strategic partnerships as Tokyo’s Indo-Pacific framing of regional geopolitical dynamics gained even greater global salience. In the future, Japan’s strategic outreach should be backed by a more potent Japanese defence force as Prime Minister Kishida Fumio adopted plans to substantially enhance Japan’s warfighting capabilities in late-2022 after a year-long review of defence settings. Such plans could also put Tokyo on the path to wield the Self-Defense Forces with greater autonomy in the 2030s and, if required, impose substantial military costs on its adversaries. Domestically, Japanese politics was tragically overshadowed by the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō. The political fallout had unanticipated negative consequences for Prime Minister Kishida as issues surrounding Mr. Abe’s state funeral and ruling party connections to the Unification Church destroyed his administration’s popularity in the second half of 2022. By the end of 2022, there was no sign of Kishida’s «three golden years» of domestic political peace as scandals involving cabinet ministers and controversy over tax rises to fund Japan’s defence build-up confounded Mr. Kishida’s ability to exert control over his own party.