Generalized Least Squares Estimation for Cointegration Parameters Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Abstract

In the presence of generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) in the residuals of a vector error correction model (VECM), maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the cointegration parameters has been shown to be efficient. On the other hand, full ML estimation of VECMs with GARCH residuals is computationally di±cult and may not be feasible for larger models. Moreover, ML estimation of VECMs with independently identically distributed residuals is known to have potentially poor small sample properties and this problem also persists when there are GARCH residuals. A further disadvantage of the ML estimator is its sensitivity to misspecification of the GARCH process. We propose a feasible generalized least squares estimator which addresses all these problems. It is easy to compute and has superior small sample properties in the presence of GARCH residuals.