Type: Working Paper
Policymakers’ Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy
Working Paper, EUI ECO, 2011/05
SIRCHENKO, Andrei, Policymakers’ Votes and Predictability of Monetary Policy, EUI ECO, 2011/05 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/15646
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
The National Bank of Poland does not publish the Monetary Policy Council's voting records before the subsequent policy meeting. Using real-time data, this paper shows that a prompter release of the voting records could improve the predictability of policy decisions. The voting patterns reveal strong and robust predictive content even after controlling for policy bias and responses to in.ation, real activity, exchange rates and financial market information. They contain information not embedded in the spreads and moves in the market interest rates, nor in the explicit forecasts of the next policy decision made by market analysts in Reuters surveys. Moreover, the direction of policymakers' dissent explains the direction of analysts.forecast bias. These findings are based on the voting patterns only, without the knowledge of policymakers' names.
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/15646
Series/Number: EUI ECO; 2011/05