Convergence at Last? Evidence From Transition Countries

Abstract

This article reexamines the hypotheses of absolute and conditional convergence for a sample of twenty-five transition countries over the period from 1990 to 2002. After splitting the sample into three four-year periods, the hypotheses are confirmed only for the latest period of transition. For the early transition stage, we find a negative relation between productivity growth, on one hand, and the pace of price liberalization and initial conditions, measured by initial market distortions, on the other hand. In addition, past/ lagged institutional reforms are found to enhance productivity growth in the intermediate and advanced stages of transition. The confirmation of convergence for the latest stage of transition, however, should not yet be considered as a sign of a permanent return to convergence in these countries as it could be the result of differences in the transition cycles.