The Linkage of Interest Rates Within the Ems

Abstract

The paper explores the linkage between interest rates in Germany and the United States with those on other currencies within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System. Monthly data on money market interest rates and rolling window cointegration techniques are used. The principal findings are that during the early part of the sample period (1979-1995), there is widespread cointegration between both US and German interest rates and those on other currencies in the ERM; but during the later part of the sample, this worldwide linkage disintegrates, cointegration between German acid other ERM interest rates strengthening whilst that with the US disappears.