Does Growth Vary Over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence From the G7 Countries

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of business cycles in the G7 countries. Our aim is to answer the question of whether growth varies (in an absolute sense) over the business cycle, and hence to examine whether the simple two-phase characterization (downturn/upturn) is an appropriate description of the business cycle. To study growth over the cycle, we estimate single-country equations and then a pooled regression that takes into account the important interactions of international business cycles. The results confirm the steepness asymmetry of the growth cycles and show that growth varies systematically within upturns and downturns. These are consistent with the notion of deepness asymmetry which implies that contractions are more pronounced in the later stages of a downturn whereas expansions are stronger immediately after troughs.