EFN report on the Euro area outlook

Abstract

This report analyses the current situation in the Euro area economy and discusses a number of policy issues concerned with the effects of fiscal policy and the convergence process in labour markets after the adoption of the common currency. We also look at the dating of business cycle turning points, and consider the consequences for the Euro area of the US current account and examine the extent to which it is structural and unsustainable. We also provide forecasts for key macroeconomic variables for 2002 and 2003 and discuss the nature of the current economic downturn and the light it throws on the conduct of economic policy in a monetary union.