Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

Abstract

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries and analyze their structure and interdependencies. Fluctuations are volatile and not highly correlated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous, making average output losses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial. Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked with the Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuations is poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.