The world gas market in 2030 : development scenarios using the world gas model
International journal of global energy issues, 2011, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 64-84[Florence School of Regulation], [Gas]
HUPPMANN, Daniel, EGGING, Rudd, HOLZ, Franziska, VON HIRSCHHAUSEN, Christian, RÜSTER, Sophia, The world gas market in 2030 : development scenarios using the world gas model, International journal of global energy issues, 2011, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 64-84[Florence School of Regulation], [Gas] - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/40178
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
We discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry through 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a multi-period strategic representation of the global natural gas sector, between 2005 and 2030. We specify a 'base case' and then analyse the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios, including various supply scenarios (e.g., emergence of large volumes of unconventional shale gas, or tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas), the impact of CO2-constraints, and regional scenarios focusing, respectively, on Russian and Caspian exports, the Arab Gulf, China and India, and the US Pacific coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, prices, and investments in pipelines, LNG terminals, and storage. However, the overall world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions of natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/40178
Full-text via DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2011.039985
ISSN: 1741-5128; 0954-7118
Series/Number: [Florence School of Regulation]; [Gas]
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