Entry of men into the labour market in West Germany and their career mobility (1945-2008) : a long-term longitudinal analysis identifying cohort, period, and life-course effects

Abstract

This study analyses how the long-term modernisation process as well as ups and downs of business cycles affect the entry of men into the labour market in West Germany and their career mobility. Combining longitudinal data from the German Life History Study and the ALWA study, we first reconstructed men's job histories continuously for the period between 1945 and 2008. As a measure of men's 'goodness of jobs' at entry into the labour market and across the job career, the magnitude prestige scale (MPS), has been employed. Then, we used the time series data obtained from official statistics to perform factor analysis and suggest a more substantially grounded approach than the conventional approach to the analysis of age (A), period (P) and cohort (C) effects. In particular, we assessed how the modernisation process and continuously changing labour market conditions affect men's entry into the labour market across successive cohorts. Based on their further occupational careers, we used a multi-level event-history model to study how placements in first jobs (cohort effect) and the continuously changing macro structure (period effect) influence men's upward, lateral, and downward career mobility, controlling for men's individual-level resources, such as educational attainment and changing labour force experience (life-course or age effect). This fully dynamic analysis shows that there was improvement in the quality of entry-level jobs and increased mobility across men's birth cohorts. This allows us to gain a better understanding of how long-term macroeconomic trends have influenced social inequality in West Germany across several generations.