How issue salience explains the rise of the populist right in Western Europe

Abstract

This article tests whether variation in issue salience can explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. By taking a novel cross-country and cross-time approach at both the aggregate- and individual levels using panel data, I robustly demonstrate that the salience of immigration positively affects electoral support for the populist right. I also find, using a structural equation modeling approach, that the salience of immigration, in turn, is partially caused by immigration rates. I do not find evidence of a positive effect of the salience of the issues of crime, unemployment, the economy, or terrorism. I find evidence of a positive effect of the salience of Europe at the individual level, which is of a similar scale to immigration.