Euroscepticism behind the victory of Eurosceptic parties in the 2018 Italian general election? : not exactly

Abstract

On 4 March 2018 Italy went to the polls amidst an intense wave of anti-establishment sentiment. The parties that contributed most to, and capitalized from, this political climate were the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S-Five Star Movement) and the Lega Nord (Lega-Northern League), that is, the challenger, populist parties. Given the Eurosceptical nature of the M5S and even more of the Lega, the election result has been regarded by many as a blow to Europe. However, while the victory of Eurosceptic parties in the 2018 election is a matter of fact, whether Euroscepticism was one of the main explanations for it remains to be determined. Thus, the goal of this article was to assess exactly the role played by Euroscepticism in the outcome of the 2018 Italian general election. For this purpose, we analysed how and to what extent EU-related issues were able to shape parties’ strategies and voters’ preferences. More specifically, we examined, on the one hand, the emphasis given to them by the parties both in their manifestos and in their official Twitter feeds during the electoral campaign, and, on the other hand, the voters’ preferences and priorities on those issues and, in comparison, on other issues. Results show that it is hard to support the interpretation that Euroscepticism was a main determinant of the election outcome. The (still minoritarian) negative views of the EU and the euro did not play a direct role either in shaping parties’ mobilization strategies or in structuring the voting choices.