Party transformation, leadership change and closeness to parties: the case of Italy, 2013

Abstract

Previous studies have portrayed the personalisation of politics as a consequence of changes in the electoral market and the resulting transformations at the party level. However, empirical research has not reached a consensus on the degree to which this process has had an impact on citizens’ voting choices. An emerging body of comparative literature would seem to support the idea that party-leader evaluations have become an actual driver of partisanship at the individual level. However, existing evidence on the topic is placed in some doubt by the cross-sectional design used. To the extent that both the dependent variable (i.e. partisanship) and the main predictor (e.g. leader evaluations) are measured at the same point in time, the causal dynamics underlying the relationship between partisanship and leader evaluations remain unclear. Against this background, this article takes advantage of a unique panel dataset assembled for the Italian National Election Study (ITANES) in November and December 2013. The time-frame of the survey allows for an unprecedented causal assessment of the effect of leadership changes (the PD and the LN) as well as party-label changes (from the PdL to FI and the NCD) on patterns of closeness to parties at the individual level. The results shed new light on the changing relationship between voters and Italian political parties, ever more focussed upon their leaders and their characteristics.