Date: 2020
Type: Article
Theory-infused and policy-relevant : on the usefulness of scenario analysis for international relations
Contemporary security policy, 2020, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 432-455
SUS, Monika, HADEED, Marcel, Theory-infused and policy-relevant : on the usefulness of scenario analysis for international relations, Contemporary security policy, 2020, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 432-455
- https://hdl.handle.net/1814/70697
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
Foresight exercises are increasingly popular among different actors across the globe. Particularly in the context of uncertainties in world affairs, decision-makers are increasingly relying on forward-reasoning to inform their policy. Yet international relations (IR) scholarship is still hesitant to adopt a scenario-based approach. We argue for the use of scenario analysis as a complementary method that is both disciplined and creative. Through scenario analysis, IR scholars simultaneously remain rigorous and provide policy-relevant input that grasps the dynamics of unpredictability of real-world issues. The article discusses the Multiple Scenario Generation method as an unconventional but useful tool, elaborates on its theoretical considerations and concludes with four innovations that scenario analysis can provide for IR scholarship.
Additional information:
First published online: 19 February 2020
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/70697
Full-text via DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2020.1730055
ISSN: 1352-3260; 1743-8764
Publisher: Routledge
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