Another brick in the wall? The case for embedded foresight

Abstract

Foresight can support policymakers to address long-term goals and navigate uncertainty in a context of poly- and perma-crisis. Common foresight methods like scenario planning and horizon scanning are commonly deployed to anticipate future risks and opportunities, and test interventions against different trends and possible futures. However, as governments and organisations develop their foresight functions, there is a risk of seeing foresight only as a set of tools or guidance, or as an extra administrative step. Instead, the transformational power of foresight lies in challenging conventional thinking and assumptions at all stages of policymaking. We argue that, to enable a culture of anticipation, organisations should go beyond guidance and embed foresight as a practice throughout the policy cycle. In so doing, it is important that organisations pay particular attention to inclusive and appropriate participation of multiple actors and stakeholders.