Global livestock trade and infectious diseases

Abstract

We identify the causal effect of global livestock trade on the spread of infectious animal diseases through an exogenous increase in the demand for imported livestock. The instrumental variable approach exploits an increase in halal livestock imports in Muslim countries during the major religious festival, Eid al-Adha. Using monthly data for 123 countries, five livestock categories, and sixteen years, we find an imports-to-infections elasticity of about 0.75. The relationship is stronger for countries that are likely to import infected livestock from their partners, or that are endowed with large domestic livestock. These results highlight transmission through trade from origin to destination.