Why is rural Spain suffering from a demographic exodus, and what are the long-term consequences? : exploring social, institutional, and economic-industrial strategies to reverse negative demographic trends in the regions of Castilla y León and Asturias

Abstract

Rural depopulation and rural-urban imbalances are increasingly relevant in Spain’s political agenda. These phenomena are symptoms of a major economic transition [2 p.7] with far-reaching societal implications [5 p.4]. A staggering 75% of the country’s municipalities lost population in the last ten years [15 p.3], and 50% of rural municipalities are at risk of becoming fully depopulated [2.3 p.248], especially those in remote and mountainous areas [5 p.1]. This spatially uneven distribution of population is especially detrimental for the large expanses of central Spain [9]. Meanwhile, urbanization is still ongoing, albeit at a slower pace: by 2050, it will increase by an additional 8 percentage points up to 88% [3 p.259]. While the expansion of cities permitted unprecedented increases in prosperity, spearheaded by industrialization and specialization, it has also aggravated inequality, both within Spain and between EU nations, due to the uneven expansion of new economic sectors [2 p.7] Until recently, Spain’s rural depopulation and domestic territorial imbalances received insufficient political attention [2.4 p.76]. Competing political issues, including high national debts, over-dependence on tourism, and the independence movement in Catalonia, had relegated rural development to the backstage. Nevertheless, rural depopulation and demographic imbalances are becoming increasingly salient [1 p.60] [2.6 p.112], with the policy issue transcending from municipal and provincial arenas to the national parliament [3.6 p.112]. This has been accompanied by unprecedented media coverage [18 p.1] [8 p.79] and political debates [1 p.31] [12 p.2], in large part thanks to civil society’s involvement and presence in mass media [3.4 p.76] [10 p.1]. An increasingly politically mobilized rural population has successfully raised awareness of the value of rural communities (living more sustainably, feeding urban areas, preserving culture), while also exposing the lack of opportunities, public services, and infrastructure, in part attributed to inadequate or ineffective government policies [1 p.60]. Mass demonstrations took place in Madrid in 2019 [15 p.4] to raise visibility, and grassroots provincial political parties have emerged to empower marginalized rural communities. These developments provide a common ground for depopulated regions, despite their heterogeneity and differing issues and priorities [1 p.77]. Defining rurality has proved difficult in both academic and political spheres, with EU countries adopting different demographic thresholds to distinguish cities from sub-urban or rural units [2.5 p.94]. This makes evaluations, generalizations, and policy transfers more complex. Nevertheless, the relevance of this issue has been backed up and legitimized by an upsurge in academic research, and growing involvement of international organizations, particularly the EU [2.1 p.10]. This has increased understanding of the issue’s complexity and the multiplicity of interlinked determinant factors, including labor market dynamics, demographic trends, and social values [1 p.15]. These slow yet meaningful social changes and perceptions are restructuring the political landscape. In 2017, the Spanish government created a commission centered around demographic challenges [2.6 p.112], evolving into a national strategy by 2019 [9 p.7]. Institutional commitment further increased with the passing of the ‘Ley de Desarrollo rural sostenible’ [3 p.269]. Furthermore, the year 2020 marked a turning point: bolstered by pressures from a social, health, and economic crisis, and the subsequent reassessment of Spain’s social and economic model, the commission was promoted to a secretariat, and integrated within a new ministry responsible for sustainable development [2.4 p.76] [8 p.85]. The creation of this ministry dissociates rural development from agriculture [2.6 p.125], paving the way to greater policy differentiation and experimentation. The social and economic fractures caused by Covid-19 marked a turning point in government strategies for long-term growth, as observed in the ‘Plan de reconstrucción social y económica’ (plan for social and economic reconstruction) launched by the economy ministry, which includes a vision of future for degraded rural spaces. This institutional reform, along with the EU’s Next Generation scheme, has given rural development visibility, framed it within the notion of sustainable development, and increased available administrative and financial resources. Technological development and the growth of new economic sectors are broadening the rural-urban divide further [21 p.5]. However, if applied creatively and framed within an adequate, responsive, and long-term oriented policy system, these changes have the potential to give a second life to rural communities, including those of Castilla y León and Asturias.