Emigration narratives : what migrants believe and why it matters

Abstract

Why do some people choose to migrate whereas others do not? Why are some willing to do so via irregular channels and some unwilling? Given the salience, uncertainty, complexity, risk and novelty of migration—as well as its emotive and value-driven nature—we can expect narratives to play a powerful and rich role in emigration decisions. This article uses the Swiss-Subsaharan Migration Network’s S-SAM Survey – Health, Migration, and Uncertainty (Adetutu et al, 2021), which asks individuals in major origin countries—Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa—about their migration plans and narrative beliefs amongst other things. In line with findings elsewhere, around 90 percent of the population of each country has some level of aspiration to migrate, though only small percentages would be willing to do so irregularly. Planned destination countries and methods of irregularity are shown to vary. The article then shows the extent to which twenty narratives are believed by various groups and their—in some cases—large effects on migration decisions. Future research should test these and other narratives via experimental studies.