What are the consequences for middle powers, such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, of a multi-order future?

Abstract

After the Cold War, the rules-based global order extended its reach, centring more on democracy and human rights. While not universally embraced, these liberal values were considered enduring, boasting global appeal because of their norms and inclusivity. There seemed to be no compelling alternatives, making this order open for all to participate. A prevailing belief was that most nations would gain from its regulations and have a voice via multilateral institutions. However, recent times have replaced this optimism with growing unease and caution. The expansion of liberal values at the core of the international order also increased the discontent of those who were not fond of those liberal values from the beginning but still benefitted from being part of the order. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been one of these countries: an absolute monarchy with strict religious laws, illiberal by nature, but still one of the closest allies of the leader of the liberal international order, the United States (US). However, as the liberal nature of the international order became more central to the international order and the pressure to adhere to liberal norms and values more felt, the relationship between Washington and Riyadh gradually became increasingly uneasy. Yet, for the Kingdom, there was no alternative on the horizon. Thus, it had to bandwagon with the US regardless. However, with the rise of China, things started to change, and space for autonomy and contestation gradually opened. Saudi Arabia is thus hedging its bets under the US security umbrella while flirting with China and Chinese-led institutions.