Technology and epidemics

Abstract

Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemies tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemies. A ft er reaching a critical mas s. rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are jully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports ofmachinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.