The geopolitics of EU enlargement : from club to commons

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the European Union’s attitude towards enlargement. Whereas five years previously European leaders had suggested that any expansion of the EU should be put on hold, suddenly they embraced potential membership for Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkans. Enlargement is the strongest instrument that the EU has to bring stability to and foster reform in bordering countries. But that strategy invites risk. Countries might join before their democracies are stable and before European institutions are ready to accommodate a wider and more diverse membership. Nevertheless, enlargement is better than the alternative. Russian victory over Ukraine would threaten not only the security of the EU but also the functioning of the single market, efforts to fight inflation and the stability of the financial system. The EU needs enlargement to protect the European commons.