Money Demand Stability and Inflation Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2009, 56, 1, 73-93
CARSTENSEN, Kai, HAGEN, Jan, HOSSFELD, Oliver, NEAVES, Abelardo Salazar, Money Demand Stability and Inflation Prediction in the Four Largest EMU Countries, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2009, 56, 1, 73-93 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/16411
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
In this paper, we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the country-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator for the disaggregate level.
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/16411
Full-text via DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9485.2009.00473.x
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
Keyword(s): E41 E52 Money demand stability money overhang inflation forecast
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