Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC
The Econometrics Journal, 2001, 4, 1, 20-36
ARTIS, Michael J., MARCELLINO, Massimiliano, Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC, The Econometrics Journal, 2001, 4, 1, 20-36 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/4385
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/4385
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