'Stay nearby or get checked' : a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy
Infectious disease modelling, 2021, Vol. 6, pp. 36-45
BRETHOUWER, Jan-Tino, VAN DE RIJT, Arnout, LINDELAUF, Roy, FOKKINK, Robbert, 'Stay nearby or get checked' : a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, Infectious disease modelling, 2021, Vol. 6, pp. 36-45 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/69018
Retrieved from Cadmus, EUI Research Repository
This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a minimum. Simulated spreading patterns resemble contemporary distributions of Covid- 19 across EU member states, German and Italian regions, and through New York City, providing some model validation. Results suggest that our proposed strategy may significantly reduce peak infection. We also find that post-lockdown flare-ups remain local longer, aiding geographical containment. These results suggest a tailored policy in which individuals who frequently travel to places where they interact with many people are offered greater protection, tracked more closely, and are regularly tested. This policy can be communicated to the general public as a simple and reasonable principle: Stay nearby or get checked.
Available online 16 November 2020
Cadmus permanent link: https://hdl.handle.net/1814/69018
Full-text via DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.013
Initial version: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/66832
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