Ukraine war : a push towards differentiated integration for the Western Balkans?

Abstract

The process of European Union (EU) enlargement to the Western Balkans (WB) is entering its third decade. The six (potential) candidates were first offered a membership prospect back in 2003. The Russian aggression against Ukraine brought a completely new political context in which enlargement is taking place. With two new EU candidates – Ukraine and Moldova, and Georgia as a potential candidate – the process of enlargement is gaining new impetus. However, it is also becoming more complex as the EU will have to work simultaneously on integrating two rather different parts of the continent: the Balkans and a part of the Eastern Partnership. Both the EU and the candidate countries are reiterating their commitment to EU membership for the Western Balkans and are formally taking some steps in the accession process. However, there are many factors both on the EU side and among candidates that make such a perspective untenable in the short-term. These include enlargement fatigue, unwillingness of candidates’ government to implement crucial reforms needed for EU membership, as well as multiple influences of non-Western powers.